The 'special military operation' announced by Vladimir Putin in February 2022 is exactly a year away. Donnelly is not surprised that the war lasts much longer than the planned three-day overrun of Ukraine. In fact, according to him, the end is nowhere near. 'The dynamics have not changed and neither has the will to fight. As long as people and ammunition get to the right place, I don't expect changes any time soon either.'
Incredible bravery
Despite that status quo, the assistant professor expects that we are entering a phase of more tension. 'Countries are supporting Ukraine financially and with weapons, but these are all weapons that are in stock. The longer the war continues, the more difficult that supply becomes and the key is investment in military production. Ukraine still exists because of its incredible bravery. That is essential, but arms supplies are just as essential. Joe Biden gives full support, but the Republicans are critical. He still gets full support now, but the question is whether that will continue.'
When Donnelly looks back on a year of war, he does not have to think long about what surprised him most in those twelve months. 'The poor status of the Russian army. We all thought it would be much stronger. They had a year to improve, but they did not succeed. They tried multiple tactics, appointed multiple commanders, but they suffer huge losses and damage. Despite that, they are still very dangerous and commit numerous war crimes. This is not surprising, because they have always done so.'
In contrast to the weak status of the Russian military, Donnelly says, is the rise of the Wagner Group, an extremely violent paramilitary organisation run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. 'The Wagner Group is growing in importance, which is not necessarily good news. They are better than the Russian army and much more brutal. Their role is becoming so big that Putin is in danger of losing control. It is hard to predict what that means for the future.'
Wagner Group's role
Despite that uncertain future, Donnelly expresses his concerns about Prigozhin's ideology. 'Putin is brutal, but that is nothing compared to Prigozhin. Putin keeps threatening to escalate and attack the West, but Prigozhin appears more willing to do it if he gets the chance. That is more in line with the crazy talk you see on Russian state television. The question is how the Wagner Group's role continues to evolve. What we know for sure is that Russia will keep trying everything, because they are not winning, but currently they are not losing either. The losses they suffer do not bother Putin, those are just numbers for him. Either way, in 2023 we are going to see more mobilisation.'
Earlier this week, Putin gave his long-awaited speech, but Donnelly did not even watch his talk as he mostly repeated previous statements and blamed the West for it. 'He mainly wanted to show that he is still there. Much more interesting was his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China and Russia say they stand side by side. That means there should be more pressure from the West to isolate them both. You can already see that’s happening and, remarkably, the Dutch company ASML is playing a big part in it. Trade and control in technology is becoming very important. In 2022, the economy was all about Russian gas. In 2023, the focus will shift to ramping up military production and restricting critical technology to China.’
