It’s been three years since Russia expanded their occupation of Crimea into a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and there aren’t any signs that the conflict will be settled any time soon, despite recent developments towards a temporary ceasefire. Meanwhile, the world’s focus shifts towards Europe’s next moves.
Shawn Donnelly, Senior Assistant Professor for Geopolitics, Technology and Europe at UT, assesses the current state of affairs, and challenges as well as opportunities for Europe ahead. He believes an end to the war is nowhere near, as both sides in the Russia-Ukraine War are willing to continue to fight, with the Ukrainians’ mettle as one decisive factor. ‘While Ukraine is willing to keep fighting if necessary, Putin will just keep sending more conscripts. To him, it is a numbers game.’
Mafia practices
Donnelly isn’t too taken with the way that the US administration has forced Ukraine into a kind of protection racket, which the raw materials deal provides, seeking regular ‘payments’ in exchange for military support. Donnelly draws a comparison between Trump’s handling of the crisis and the way deals are forced in the mafia TV drama The Sopranos. ‘The Trump-Zelensky deal on critical raw materials in Ukraine is taking chips off the table that Putin wanted for himself.’
A big problem that remains for Ukraine and Europe is Trump's friendliness to Russia. To Donnelly, Ukraine looks stuck in the middle: ‘If you’d do a split screen between the things that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Donald Trump say about Ukraine, I dare you to find the difference.’
The Russian government has invested significant resources and manpower into their war effort, and withdrawal or retreat could have political consequences. Donnelly doesn’t expect much change, even if Putin would be gone. The recent development of a possible ceasefire might only bring temporary relief.
European defence strategies
In a way, still, Donnelly feels it could amount to something good for Europe on the world stage. ‘The recent Oval Office debacle has opened up many Europeans’ eyes to the new reality that they can no longer blindly rely on the US. We’re seeing more talks and new strategic developments in the last few weeks than in the many years before.’
He believes Europe would be well-equipped to hold their own when needed, if they join forces and make use of each others’ strengths.
Europe’s nuclear powers UK and France are now rallying for support from other member states. While France is trying to unite Europe under EU banner, the UK is forming a coalition of the willing, which might prove to be more effective. Germany and France could deploy heavy machinery and battle tanks, while Poland is actively building up their ranks.
‘Although Germany, has cowardly kept from directly supporting Ukraine so far, they now have a new leader who is more willing to step up. They could start borrowing funds to increase military spending,’ says Donnelly. According to him, Europe is nearing a point where it is forced to act, under the old adagio of ‘better dead than red.’
Porcupines or Make Russia Afraid Again
Donnelly names multiple defensive schemes. ‘Either Europe could adopt a so-called porcupine strategy, meaning it should invest in enhanced military capabilities that will deter Russia from advancing into Europe any further. Or Europe could opt for a ‘Make Russia Afraid Again’ scheme, in which Europe ramps up their numbers and shows a readiness to respond to threats if provoked.’
Joint forces
Whatever the outcome, Donnelly hopes that France and the UK will be able to unify the many factions within Europe. ‘Each nation should focus more on what they’re already good at, and make sure that it’s all properly coordinated.’
He points out that Finland and Sweden’s joint air and naval capabilities, added to Germany and France’s heavy machinery and battle tanks, would make Putin’s posse think twice about making a move in this direction.
The Dutch could, says Donnelly, offer digital and cyber security support, strategic intelligence, as well as drone technology. ‘But given the fact that they have shoved a knife into EU plans for common defence funding, other Europeans will now have to work around the Netherlands as a troublesome actor holding Europe back.’
High Tech, Human Touch
Donnelly thinks the Netherlands’ current policies — Cutbacks into science, research and development, but also support for European defence — are akin to shooting themselves in the foot, diminishing chances of favourable nano and chip technology agreements and an incentive for technical universities such as UT. ‘We have communications, drone technology, quantum computing, cryptography, anything that involves semiconductors. It’s where UT’s slogan of High Tech, Human Touch is currently most applicable.’
‘My hopes are that the Europeans get their act together, that they start borrowing more collectively for European defence, and that they'll put it into an effective deterrent that protects the homeland and creates some capacity to strike back if required. You want to see a situation in which Europe can very peaceably say: ‘We don't want to start a fight, but we must be able to end one.’’
